Some of the numbers are in for the 6th Congressional Democrats. And while I’ve been a supporter of Christine’s in the past, I have to say these numbers don’t look good:
- Raised: $68k
- Spent: $77k
- Cash on hand: $39k
- Debts owed: $39k
Once you subtract debts from cash on hand, the Cegelis campaign has $184.54.
Lindy Scott, on the other hand, raised $50k in Q4 (and $71k total, not the $100k plus promised to Hiram a couple weeks back) and has $49,033 cash on hand (that’s after you account for the $30k debts owed). For a first-time candidate in a competitive race, that’s a solid showing by him. Update: Scratch that. He contributed $42k to himself, and loaned his campaign $30k. So he’s actually raised just $29k.
(Rather than comment on the rumored numbers I’ve heard for Duckworth, I’ll wait until I see confirmation in any of the online databases at fec.gov.)
Bottom line: absent a miracle, Christine will have no way to get her message out while Scott and Duckworth fight it out on the airwaves and in the mail. Voter outreach in the final weeks will be expensive, and without any money to spend, she could very easily finish third in a three-way race. Considering that she’s raised over $200k this cycle (nearly matching what she raised in the entire 2004 cycle, including the primary), that’s unfortunate (to say the least).
Back in November, ArchPundit commented on Christine’s burn rate, noting that it should be 35% or so and it was in fact 89%. Instead of fixing that, Christine actually increased her burn rate — to 114% (she spent nearly $78k and raised $68k). Amazing.
I hesitated writing anything about this, considering the venom being spewed about this particular race. It’s incredibly disappointing to see such pointless, counter-productive commentary being levelled. I even heard from one township chair this weekend that a precinct captain who supports Christine — a precinct captain! — vowed to tell everyone in his precinct to vote Republican if Duckworth wins the primary. Talk about missing the bigger picture!
Anyway, I decided to note these figures since I haven’t seen any commentary yet anywhere else. Interested in anyone’s thoughts on the 6th. (Though it should be noted ahead of time, I’m not interested in hearing grand conspiracy theories about Cook County Democrats’ plans to invade DuPage County, or the latest rumors about Rahm Emmanuel eating his young. Please, I beg of you, let’s try and focus on what’s important: getting a Democrat elected in November.)
Update: Michael in Chicago responds. I’ll post my thoughts on this later tonight.
4 responses to “IL-06 numbers are in”
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“I even heard from one township chair this weekend that a precinct captain who supports Christine — a precinct captain! — vowed to tell everyone in his precinct to vote Republican if Duckworth wins the primary.”I ran into a Township officer/precinct captain who said the same thing about me in 2004. Petty differences will only keep the party down. With help like this for our candidates, the Republicans will never have to look over their shoulders.I hate to see Christine's campaign go broke, but in the end, I just want the Dem to win.
Let's suppose you are right and it comes down to the airwaves. If Scott can turn out the Latino vote and win the primary, do you think Christine would consider joining his staff in DC? They could almost have a shared congressional seat. They agree on 99% of the issues and together make a dynamic duo. I'm sure Scott would welcome the idea. That would be a powerful way to beat Roskam. Just imagine the local support a Scott/Cegelis team could generate.Nancy