Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Long bet

OK, I’ll wager something of value that Hillary Clinton will not, under any circumstance, be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2008. She puts the polar in polarization, and incenses the red staters into bouts of apoplexy the likes of which would give us nightmares for years to come. The Democrats will need someone who can talk comfortably about their faith, talk decisively about morals, and lay a convincing foundation for why the Democratic vision of government’s role is consistent with the majority of Americans’ views.

Is she a woman to be admired for her accomplishments? Yes. Is she smart? No question. Is she powerful? Yep. Excels at fundraising? You betcha.

She’s all that and more. But she’s not the nominee. Oh, she may run. But she won’t win the nomination. And that, in my opinion, will be a good thing.

Update: I’ve accepted Brad’s wager, and posted my response to his post here.


  1. Throw onto that the facts that:
    1. She's a Senator; how many of them have won the Presidency in the last 40 years?
    2. She's representing a Northeastern state; how many northeasterners have won the Presidency in the last 40 years?

    On paper, I'd say that Virginia Gov. Warner would have the best shot at nomination (moderate, southern Governor from a possible swing state).

  2. Whatever the line is, Hillary will cover it.

    Rick Klau wrote yesterday that he didn't think Hillary Clinton will win the democratic primary in 2008.

  3. I agree. If you thought John Kerry motivated the red staters to get out and vote, you ain't seen nothing like the motivation Hillary would give us.

    I predict an Edwards-Rather ticket in '08.

  4. On paper, I think the best possible ticket for the Democrats would be Gov. Warner - Gov. Richardson (2 southern, "centrist" Democrats from possible swing states). The worst ticket would be any with Kerry, Gore, Dean, or Clinton on the ticket.

    A lot depends on where we are in the war on terror, and where the economy is.

  5. Rick, take a look here: for another place to wager on the future.

  6. The consensus among the Water Buffalos is the Dems need to take a populist approach rather than retreading the same crew of tired politicians. It's been clear for quite some time that it takes a different set of skills to get elected than to govern.

    It's time for the dems to take a page out of the republican play book:

    Oprah '08

    If she can get this country to read, she can get them to vote!

  7. Taking a moment to not be pragmatic or sensible, I have to say that I think the last thing that needs to happen is more work to make the Democrats look like the Republicans. People who posit their actions on faith and morals are not what is needed to turn back the tide. Unless Moses is running for Pres in 2008.

    Kerry lost my interest when he started trying to look like a hunting religious person. Please.

  8. Chris - Totally agree with you. Being Republican lite is what got the Democrats slaughtered in 2002, and is arguably what contributed to Kerry's defeat last week.

    People respond to vision, and in the case of Barack Obama, have shown they'll vote for someone they disagree with if they're inspired by him/her. We need to find those charismatic leaders who can articulate the Democratic vision.

  9. "She ... incenses the red staters into bouts of apoplexy..."
    That's what I like about Hill.

  10. You're probably right on Hillary. I'm thinking of people like: Warner, Biden, Bayh, Edwards.

  11. Not Excited About Evan Bayh 4 President

    Political Wire and The Capitol Fax both mention an Indianapolis Star article about Indiana Senator Evan Bayh's presidential prospects. If you don't know who he is - join the crowd. That to me is a problem. John Kerry wasn't known...