Friday, October 8, 2004

Election prediction

Matt (where did that extra T come from?!) asks us to predict what’s going to happen on November 2. IM’ing last night, I told him I thought it would be 49-46 Kerry.

But as I think about it, I think several factors will prove critical:

  • voter registration at unprecedented levels

  • organizations like ACT are going to equal their registration efforts with GOTV efforts

  • the news in Iraq is getting worse, quickly

With that said, here are my predictions:

Candidate Popular vote Electoral votes
Kerry 51.5% 289
Bush 47% 249
Other 1.5% 0


  1. Good prediction, but if Kerry snags 51.5% of the vote, he'll get well over 300 electoral votes.

  2. What's worrying me is that that other for popular vote could be higher and cost us the election. October has come and like the leaves of fall you can be sure that this month will also bring the same old Republican tricks. Republicans are bound to pull out all the dirty tricks over the next few weeks to take this thing and we've got to stop them. The trick that's getting to me most in the Republican bag is their continued help of Ralph Nader to get him on the ballot in major key swing states in order to as former House Majority Leader, Dick Armey said, "divide the liberal base." They've done everything from having Ken Sukhia, one of Bush's elections lawyers from the 2000 campaign, represent Nader in court in Florida to having the Michigan Republican party collect 40,000 signatures to get him on the ballot in Michigan. I know this was a bit off topic but it really annoys and angers me to see the lengths these Republicans will go to in order to take this election. In terms of Nader, they've been helping him get on the ballot in every battleground state. Please go to and check out what I mean. We've got to stop this before it's too late!