Several weeks ago, Matt Gross asked for an election prediction. At the time, I called the popular vote 51.5% for Kerry to 47% for Bush, and gave Kerry an electoral college win of 289-249. (If you care to see how I got to 289, see here.)
Eric Zorn of the Chicago Tribune wants us local bloggers to make our predictions; deadline’s tomorrow. In particular, Eric wants to know what the spread between Obama and Keyes will be (my prediction: 44%; Obama 70% – 26%), as well as the electoral spread between Bush and Kerry.
First off, for the part that matters: I’ve revised my thinking, I think Kerry wins the electoral vote, 285 – 253. Here’s how I see it shaping up:
(To be honest, this is a bet of a hedge; I think it quite likely Kerry holds on to Minnesota, and that would mean a 20-vote swing in the EV. But the way Eric is scoring our predictions, I’m being a bit more cautious.)
The states that have changed for me since my early October prediction: Minnesota and Wisconsin (a wash, each has 10 electoral votes), and Hawaii (Bush appears to have picked up a small lead in this 4 EV state). I’d really like to see Kerry hold onto Minnesota, which would put him at 295 and allow him to lose Ohio or Florida but still come out on top.
If you’re looking for daily updates on the latest polls (and the impact on the electoral vote), check out Electoral-Vote.com and Slate’s Election Scorecard. Both do a good job of deconstructing who’s where, and let you judge for yourself the relative merits of any particular pollster. And Eric just recently pointed to local site RealClearPolitics.com who’s also tracking the daily shifts. Worth a visit.
I will freely admit to a subjective tilt to my prediction. I want John Kerry to win, and am viewing many of the most recent polls through a favorable filter. At a party last night, I was talking with a die-hard Republican, and I told her I had just two worries: that the electoral college results in a tie, or that Kerry wins the popular vote by a wider margin than Al Gore did but President Bush manages to squeak out a victory in the electoral college.
Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments; I look forward to seeing what others are thinking.