Sunday, February 1, 2004

A brokered convention?

Going back several months, the conventional wisdom was that having too many Democrats in the race would just cause them to bloody each other up, leaving them winded and broke and unable to fight President Bush’s war chest.

But a new reality is emerging: because the race is contested, because of the remarkable twists and turns of the past few weeks, the Democrats are getting vastly more press than the Bush administration. Result? Bush’s numbers are among the lowest of his presidency, his approval rating is bottoming out, and a hypothetical Democrat head-to-head against Bush is a dead heat.

Let’s carry this one step further: what of Bush’s presumed money advantage? The popular assumption was that Bush, once the Democratic nominee emerges, would blitz that nominee with tens of millions of dollars that the nominee couldn’t counter. Well, what if it does turn out to be a brokered convention? What if there isn’t a nominee until July? Bush doesn’t get to fight one nominee, he has to fight three, or four, or even five.

Could it be that a brokered convention is the Democratic Party’s best chance for a fair fight in November?


  1. The meme is spreading:

    Houston Chronicle: Do's, Don'ts, Dems
    Best way for case against president is rip-roaring primary race

  2. This was why, going into Iowa (for Dean) I said "just hope Dean doesn't get first". Oops.

    The reason: A close, unpredicable race could sustain the excitement and momentum. The less lag time between nomination and November, the better.

  3. A brokered convention, that would be entertaining if nothing else. The nomination vote going to a second ballot. Do all delegates become 'free' on a second ballot?

    Might make we work to get you to the convention Rick.... Then again they would take away my GOP decoder ring.

  4. Yay! More outright spin and deceiving on the truth. Bill Clinton during the 1996 election was polled against Bob Dole at the beginning of the Republican Primary Season and Bob Dole was the winner.

    So? When the president has yet to campaign and has yet to confront the 'nominated' opponent on the political issues.... Of course the opponent's numbers are up and the president's numbers are down.

    If Rick decided to make fun of me and distort everything I say on the Internet in a campaign against me to every blogger.... What do you think my popularity will be? How do you think I'd poll? Especially if I never got around to defending myself?

  5. Yes, let's have a brokered convention. Maybe we could get this Hillary situation taken care of now; I really don't want to wait for her to run in 2008 against Jeb Bush/Rudy Gulianni. She can't win in '04; she may not even be nominated in '08, if Gore has his way...

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