Thursday, December 11, 2003

Huge shift in Iowa

Taegan Goddard notes that a recent Survey USA poll indicates a major shift towards Dean in Iowa.

I didn’t write about it here — been a bit busy lately, but last weekend I was discussing Iowa with a friend who’s just recently started following the race. And one prediction I made was that Iowa wouldn’t be as close as it’s been made out to be. If things continue as they’ve been the last couple weeks, we’d see a strengthening support for Dean — his supporters are more committed in Iowa, and the momentum was swinging his way. Gephardt’s supposed advantages: the Union support, the long history in the state — would be eclipsed by the volume of new participants in the process Dean’s bringing in and the amount of money Dean can spend to keep the perception that he’s the more committed candidate. (Like it or not, that’s the advantage of all that fundraising Dean’s been doing this year.)

So… it’s easy for me to say this in hindsight. But it looks like this latest poll is an indication of where things are turning. A 19 point lead over Gephardt with five weeks to go. A 20+ lead over Kerry with six weeks to go. Both leads are growing. And don’t forget that the fundraising totals will be announced before the Iowa Caucus: which will be a major news item in the days leading up to the caucus, and if the Dean/Gephardt split in dollars is anything like it was last quarter, that could be enough to push people on the fence to the Dean camp because it’s seen as one indication of how much Dean can put into the general election…


  1. And -- for what it's worth -- the Gore announcement was a kick in the teeth to the other candidates' credibility right before the 4Q fundraising heats up.

  2. Dont know if clinton will do an endorcement too....

    Anyway, Did you see this new anti-GWB thing? Funny.

    I got 2 of em.

  3. Hello Political Party Built upon the foundations of Bush Hatred. It's me, Jeff MacMillan, here.. I'm the little voice of reason inside you that you keep ignoring.

    With Saddam Hussein Capture the Liberals have only 1 thing to say. "SO WHAT!!!!"

    And why? And why? And why is that?

    Because Liberals have only one thing in mind. They want to control the future. Republicans have the future and they don't. They are utterly scared by this and utterly afraid that Howard Dean won't win election 2004. I predict the 'Suicide Rate' to sky rocket should Dean lose.

  4. Hi Rick,

    I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the impact of Saddam's capture on Dean's campaign/message. The three questions:

    1. If Dean had had his way, Saddam would still be ruling Iraq. How does he deflect/deflate this charge?

    2. Almost all the Democratic candidates yesterday said that we should now "internationalize" the Iraq situation. While this sounds good in theory, in practice, how would having France on our side really help? Can anyone keep a straight face when claiming having France and Germany on board would have resulted in capturing Hussein faster? And since we have Japan, the UK, and Spain, among others, in the coalition, isn't it international already?

    3. Why should Hussein be tried by European bureaucrats rather than the Iraqi people (as "People Powered Howard" wants)?

    I disagree with Dean on 99% of the issues, but respect him as a skilled politician running a very tight campaign. I'm curious how a Dean supporter views the above issues.


  5. I don't see how the capture of Saddam changes much for Dean or his chances. Assuming they put Saddam on trial before November it might actually help Dean by hurting the President.

    At some point in the trial they are going to have to let Saddam speak if the trial is to have any legitimacy. So what happens when he reminds the world how we supported him during the Iran-Iraq war.

    Then again if he points out where the WMD's are in excahnge for his life that will hurt Dean big time.

  6. I've heard that refrain (about the Iran-Iraq war) before, but don't see how something that happened back in the 1980s could possibly hurt Bush.

  7. Woaw! RED FLAG!! A liberal democrat is admitting that he is 'cautious' and 'worried' that Saddam Hussein could reveal Weapons of Mass Destruction thus ruining Howard Dean's chances!

    Woaw! What are you people but anything but a bunch of hypocrites? Weren't you 8 months ago walking around the street with a 'NO WMDs in IRAQ, NO WAR" sign? Weren't you 8 months ago Trolling on Conservative Web Logs saying that there is no evidence of any kind of WMDs in Iraq?

    Sound the alarm bells folks! This capture of Saddam Hussein has decimated Dea Supporters and has exposed the entire truth about them to people who may not have known the truth before.

    Why has Rick Klau been silent all this time? I am sure he will speak soon. But, his silence is sure a sign that even this 'DEAN SUPPORTER' can spare a SINGLE moment of his time to express his thoughts about the capture of Saddam!

    Geeze you liberals are so Anti-American that you got yourselves believing that you are not.

  8. It doesn't matter what Saddam Hussein 'Says.' It only matters what he can 'Prove.'

    The only stuff that was sent over to Iraq by america were 'Dual-Use' weapons. The Iran-Iraq war broke out only a couple years after Saddam FIRST became president. In that time.... America's enemy was IRAN and that enemy was far greater than Iraq. Why? Because at that time, Iraq never threatened us!

    I have absolutely only OPTIMISM about this trial. I want Saddam Hussein to speak his evil heart out to the world. I want him to speak and speak and speak and talk and talk and say whatever is on his mind.

    I want him to have a high priced lawyer who can paint Saddam Hussein in as best an image as possible.

    I want to put all of the Liberal, Dean Supporters, right on the podeum of those who are waiting for 'SADDAM' to bail themselves out of their own anti-war stance.

  9. Gee Jeff settle down. You will blow a gasket. Save it for those who care. Try Joes website.

  10. Good lord,Jeff,since you disagree so vehemently with all of Rick's positions, maybe it's time for you to take a break from his site? All this shouting and name-calling is not winning anyone over to your side. In fact, it does nothing more than solidify our position that Bush & his supporters have caused an almost irreparable rift in our country by painting those of us who disagree as Anti-American. What is Anti-American is the attempt to shut down (or rather shout down) reasonable, intelligent discourse.

    In terms of Saddam's capture, yes, of course, it is a win for the administration. But let's get the politics and partisanship out of the discussion for a moment, and remember that the real win is for the Iraqi people. It is the innocents among them who have lived in fear all these years - fear that we can never pretend to understand - and all these months worried that Saddam would re-take power. If nothing else, it is a very symbolic moment. One can only hope that this will have a stabilizing effect on the country, but I tend to doubt it. If Iraq is the hot-bed of terrorism as the administration has told us for the last several months, then by its own implicit admission, the capture will not change a thing. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great day for the world that this man is in custody, I just do not believe that there will be an immediate amelioration of conditions in Iraq, nor do I believe that we needed to engage in a war to accomplish this end.